WINFORMS: The Washington DC Chapter of INFORMS

Meetings and Events 2005

Past Meetings and Events, 2005

“Out of the Ordinary: Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior” by Dr. John Hollywood, Rand Corporation

Date: Tuesday, December 13, 2005

This talk will discuss the Atypical Signal Analysis and Processing (ASAP) concept for identifying, relating, and analyzing potential clues of terrorist activities. Modeled after thought processes used by successful problem solvers, ASAP identifies out of the ordinary, atypical behavior that is potentially related to terror activity. ASAP then puts the behavior into context, generates and tests hypotheses about the meaning of the behavior, and focuses analysts' attention on he most significant results. We also discuss the development of the concept. Systems engineering and architecture development proved to be the most important part of developing ASAP; while individual data processing and analysis tools were broadly available, the overall architecture and control structures for employing the tools were not. Finally, we discuss what can be done in the short term to capture some of the benefits of ASAP.

Dr. Hollywood is an Operations Researcher at the RAND Corporation. At RAND, he conducts research on the design, implementation, and ongoing management of complex policy solutions serving multiple stakeholders, primarily in the area of information technology. These have included a concept for finding hidden terror threats by collaboratively analyzing and detecting unusual behavior, and a concept for managing information networks that combines techniques from cybernetics, supply chain and manufacturing management, and organizational theory to satisfy the needs of a network's end users. He has worked on several projects assessing the contribution of information technologies to improved military effectiveness, and is currently examining tactics and techniques to defeat improvised explosive device attacks in Iraq.

Dr. Hollywood has a Ph.D. in Operations Research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“Agent-Based Modeling of the Rise and Fall of Civilizations” by Prof. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla

Date: Tuesday, 25 October 2005
Location: General Dynamics in Rosslyn

While social and political scientists have a long tradition of developing simulation models, starting with systems dynamics in the 1970s, it wasn't until recent years that object-oriented programming rendered possible the representation of countries and regions with much more realistic geographic and economic detail. We will review the present state-of-the-art and future potential of agent-based modeling applied to the simulation of long-term processes of geopolitical expansion and contraction or collapse, with an emphasis on George Mason University's own MASON simulation toolkit. Some of the processes already being modeled include decision-making, trade, warfare, and territorial change resulting in political fluctuations.

Claudio Cioffi-Revilla is a professor of computational social sciences and director of the Center for the Study of Social Complexity, George Mason University. He previously held faculty positions at the University of Colorado, the University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana, and the University of North Carolina. His research interests include global dynamics of war and peace, emergence of social complexity, and agent-based models of cooperation and competition. He collaborated in developing MASON, a multi-agent simulation package. He is vice president of the North American Association for Computational Social and Organizational Science (NAACSOS). He has a Ph.D. in political science from Florence, Italy.

“The Phoenix Project: Rebuilding the Pentagon after 9/11/01” by Allyn E. Kilsheimer, P.E., CEO, KCE Structural Engineeers, P.C.

Date: Tuesday, September 13, 2005
Location: Sheraton National Hotel in Arlington

On September 11, 2001, in response to a call for help from the Pentagon, Mr. Kilsheimer was the first independent structural expert to assess the damage and what would be required to repair and/or replace it. Within days he was selected to be the professional in charge, lead structural engineer and owner’s representative for the rebuilding, which became known as The Phoenix Project. Under his leadership and that of Walker Lee Evey, the design and construction team rebuilt the iconic structure within 11 months, well ahead of schedule and well under budget.

The project required not only design and construction expertise, but also, and even more important, the capability to engage and facilitate an unprecedented sense of teamwork among design professionals and construction workers, and to coordinate and direct the efforts of this unusually diverse team. By its striking success, the project not only helped to restore a symbol of our nation, but also helped the American people to heal after the September 11th tragedy.

Mr. Kilsheimer is a registered Professional Engineer, with 46 years of experience (36 years as Founder and CEO of KCE Structural Engineers, PC) in direct charge of structural design for over $29 billion of construction. He is licensed in over 15 states. The technologies of building and material failures, natural and man-made disasters, historic restoration, forensic engineering, façade retention techniques, façade investigation, emergency repair work and selective demolition work have been an additional special service of Mr. Kilsheimer for many years. This expertise has been drawn upon by government agencies, private sector owners, contractors and major corporations throughout the United States and overseas.

This presentation is co-sponsored by the Washington, DC Chapter, The Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (WINFORMS) and Washington, DC Chapter, the Institute of Industrial Engineers. They gratefully acknowledge the co-sponsorship and generous support of General Dynamics, Network Systems Division (GD-NET), which is proud to have provided information technology for The Phoenix Project.

“Computerized Third Parties: Why don’t you speak for yourself, John?” by John Kettelle

Date: Tuesday, August 16, 2005

“Why don’t you speak for yourself, John?” Priscilla Mullen’s rejoinder to John Alden when he told her that he had been sent by Miles Standish to ask for her hand is a classic example of the hazards of using a human being for a third party. But critical information, such as how far either side is willing to go, and the relative importance of component issues, is indeed counterproductive to give directly to the “other side.” Mr. Kettelle will demonstrate how this problem can be addressed by using a computer as the “third party.” Mr. Kettelle will discuss computer “third party” utilization in government applications such as treaties, intelligence sharing, and procurement; as well as in commercial corporate applications such as mergers, sales of residential real estate, and labor negotiations.

John Kettelle’s 50-year professional career includes ballistic missile defense, congressional redistricting, under-sea warfare, and reorganization of the domestic airline industry. His entrepreneurial career started with his partnership with Daniel Wagner and culminated with Ketron, an OR company with over 300 employees. His undergraduate degree was in physics (Harvard), and his graduate work (Brown and Ohio State) was in pure mathematics. In WWII he served in the amphibious forces, and in the Korean conflict on a submarine. He has been active in MORS, Chairman of MAS, a founding member of the Management Science Roundtable, and editor of numerous books published by ORSA/INFORMS.

“The First Linear Programming Shoppe” by Dr. Saul Gass

Date: Wednesday, July 13, 2005

Linear programming was born in the Pentagon. In 1946, the Air Force’s chief mathematical advisor, George B. Dantzig, was given the task of mechanizing the Air Force’s planning process to speed up the computation of plans and programs dealing with the deployment of forces and equipment, training, and logistical support. His analysis led to the formulation of the general linear-programming problem and the simplex method for solving it. Under the name Project SCOOP (Scientific Computation of Optimal Programs), Dantzig, mathematicians, statisticians, and economists were then assigned the task to extend and apply these developments. We review the early history of linear programming with respect to the solution of linear equations, computer developments, and its origins within the Federal government.

Saul I. Gass received his B. S. in Education and M. A. in Mathematics from Boston University, and his Ph. D. in Engineering Science / Operations Research from the University of California, Berkeley. He is currently Professor Emeritus at the Smith School of Business, U. MD. He first served as a mathematician for the Aberdeen Bombing Mission, U. S. Air Force, and then with the Air Force’s Directorate of Management Analysis (Pentagon), the organization in which linear programming was first developed. Later, for IBM, he was an Applied Science Representative, Manager of the Project Mercury Man in Space Program, and Manager of IBM's Federal Civil Programs. He has served as a consultant for and to a number of firms and governmental organizations. His publications include the recently published An Annotated Timeline of Operations Research: An Informal History (with A. Assad), and the Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Sciences (with Carl Harris). He is a past president of ORSA and Omega Rho. He is a recipient of ORSA’s Kimball Medal, INFORMS's Expository Writing Award, and MORS's Jacinto Steinhardt Memorial Award. He is a Fellow of INFORMS.

“Homeland Security Challenges” Panel Discussion

Date: Tuesday, May 31, 2005
Location: General Dynamics in Rosslyn

This month's discussion evolves around two of the Home Land Security Department challenges. Discussion topics will be the following:

  1. The cat and mouse game of terrorism prevention. Since game theory and decision theory are somewhat static representations, how should we address this issue? In other words, how do we do adversarial reasoning?
  2. Unifying and strengthening our network of First Responders. How do we help local people protect their data, get the right information, and trust HLS help? And anything else to help them...

The panel discussion will be moderated by Russell Vane, out-going President of WINFORMS.

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How to Measure Efficiency using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)
Speaker: David Lengacher

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

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