Meetings and Events 2007
Past Meetings and Events, 2007
“How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business” by Doug Hubbard, President, Hubbard Decision Research
Date: Wednesday, October 17, 2007 Doug Hubbard will talk about the approach described in his book, “How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business”. Hubbard's method, Applied Information Economics (AIE) includes how to formulate intangibles as measurable and techniques for improving Monte Carlo models including:
Doug Hubbard has more than 20 years experience in IT management consulting including 12 years experience in teaching organizations to use his Applied Information Economics (AIE) method. He invented AIE to quantify the value and risk of IT in a mathematically and scientifically sound manner and this methodology is used in a variety of Fortune 500 companies and major government agencies (civilian and military). He is an internationally recognized expert in the field of IT value and is a popular speaker at numerous conferences. Doug is the author of “How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business” and numerous articles in InformationWeek and CIO Magazine. He was formerly with Coopers & Lybrand, and has an MBA in Management Information Systems from his home state at the University of South Dakota. |
“Everything you wanted to know about the Winter Simulation Conference 2007” by Dr. Russell Barton
Date: Tuesday, August 28, 2007 Dr. Russell Barton, The Pennsylvania State University, is the Program Chair for the Winter Simulation Conference. The conference takes place in Washington DC from December 9th through December 12th at the JW Marriott Hotel. |
“I'm Not Looking, But...” Panel Discussion with Dr. Doug Samuelson, Dr. Russ Vane, and Russell Wooten
Date: Tuesday, July 17, 2007 The position of OR/MS in the analytical community seems to have changed. There are fewer recruiters than before looking specifically for OR analysts, but there are also few OR analysts looking for work, as far as we can tell. What we do hear frequently, both from individuals and from corporate HR people, is, “What can you tell me about [company / person]? How well would we fit together?” So, what qualities do OR analysts need to thrive in this market? Is OR becoming mostly a hire-by-referral occupation? Is subject matter knowledge more and more necessary? If so, how can WINFORMS help its members build their networks to take advantage of this market, and what skills can we help each other to acquire? What does this mean for each of us, for us as a profession, and for WINFORMS? The panel consists of former WINFORMS Presidents and INFORMS Moving Spirit award winners Dr. Doug Samuelson and Dr. Russ Vane and is moderated by current WINFORMS President Russell Wooten. |
“Simulating Communications Response to a Nuclear Terrorist Attack on Washington, DC” by Patricia McCormick and Thomas McCormick of Alpha Informatics, Limited
Date: Tuesday, June 5, 2007 To support an analysis of DoD response to a nuclear terrorist attack on Washington, DC, a study team from Alpha Informatics, Limited (AIL) and SPARTA, Inc. examined the impact of alternative communications architectures on the outcomes of the scenario. We used the Communications Architecture Support Tool (CAST), a discrete event simulation developed by AIL, and the Systems Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS), an Air Force toolkit agent based complex adaptive systems simulation developed and maintained by SPARTA. After discussions with several civil First Response organizations, the team developed a detailed representation of both the civil First Responders and DoD elements included in the scenario, and implemented this representation in SEAS. In addition, the team developed a simulation incorporating the civil First Responder 800 MHz radio system, the civil PSTN, and the DoD communications capabilities in CAST to examine the flow of mission critical information in the scenario. The concepts driving both of these efforts were based on, and synchronized with, the response plan prepared by the Washington Metropolitan Council of Governments, the National Incident Management System, applicable local support agreements, and DoD organizational capabilities. The resulting simulation provides insights into the impact of communications interoperability on the outcome of the scenario, as well as operational planning insights which may be of use to first response planners. Ms. McCormick holds a BS in Computer Science from the US Military Academy, West Point, and an MS (with Distinction) in Operations Research from George Mason University. Mr. McCormick holds a BA in History from Dickinson College, an MS in Systems Management from Troy State University, and an MA in International Relations/Strategic Studies from Boston University. He is also a graduate of the US Army Command and General Staff College and the Joint Forces Staff College. |
“Simulation-supported Decision Making” by Gene Allen
Date: Tuesday, April 24, 2007 Engineering provides a knowledge base for decision making. An engineering knowledge base is the culmination of education, training, and experience that provides insight and understanding of how things work or do not work. A program's engineering knowledge base consists of the knowledge and expertise of all the personnel involved over the lifecycle of a program with all accompanying documentation. The majority of an engineering knowledge base is learned from experience in testing and operations. However, learning from prototype testing and operational accidents/problems is both costly, time consuming, and risky. In the past, this has been an accepted cost of adopting new technologies, as it has been the only way we learn about what we do not know. The unanticipated and often non-intuitive results of new technologies are often realized in operations, and sometimes only after decades. This uncertainty is the result of combinations of factors or characteristics, all of which have natural ranges of variability. This variability and uncertainty has historically been taken into account through the use of safety factors, based on experience. The advances and availability of computer capability can be used as a substitute for the experience-based safety factors used in design. Virtual data can be generated by running multiple physics-based analyses of a parametrized computer model, varying parameters across their natural ranges with each run. This process provides an accurate simulation of reality. Results are a cloud of points with each point being an accurate result of that specific combination of variables. The simulation process includes as many variables as possible. A simulation consists of 100 analysis runs, sampling all variables using advanced Monte Carlo sampling methods. One hundred analysis runs provides a simulation resolution equivalent to the resolution of inputs. This process minimizes the need for making initial assumptions, which are often a source of problems as people most often do not know what they do not know at the time of making their assumptions. Different correlation methods are used to filter the number of variables in the simulation result to those individual variables, or groups of variables, that are most significant. This shows cause and effect information. Additionally, automatic outlier detection can be used to quickly identify those combinations of variables what generate anomalies. The combination of 1) cause and effect information and 2) the knowledge gained through understanding outliers provides accurate input to the engineering knowledge base that can be used for decision making. Simulation, using today's readily available computer capability, is being used to learn and gain otherwise unavailable knowledge for making decisions. Gene Allen is Director of Collaborative Development for MSC Software. In this capacity he has established a number of collaborative R&D programs applying computers in design and manufacturing to speed the development of better, safer products. He has worked in collaborative design automation efforts with numerous organizations including Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, Ford, General Motors, Pratt & Whitney, Texas Instruments, Kodak, DARPA, NASA, NIST, DOE labs. Earlier positions include Director Collaborative Development at the National Center for Manufacturing Sciences, Assistant to U.S. Senator Robert C. Byrd, and Associate with Booz, Allen & Hamilton. Gene is probably best known for his book, Collaborative R&D: Manufacturing's New Tool (National Association of Manufacturers), Gene Allen and Rick Jarman, Wiley (1999). He holds an engineering degree from MIT and served as a nuclear-trained Navy officer after graduation. |
“The Tragedy of Being a Professional Engineer or Scientist: How Safe Are We?” by Gerald VoorhiesDate: Wednesday, February 28, 2007 Automotive insurers know that we engineers and scientists are less safe behind the wheel than most others. Why? We love our jobs so much we can’t stop designing, analyzing, etc. To the extent that we continue to process work while not in front of the computer, our safety equation decreases. Mr. Gerald Voorhies is a safety professional with a degree in Engineering Technology/Industrial Safety from Texas A&M University. He spent a career (25 years) in the Navy as a designated Naval Aviator with over 4,300 hours of flight time. He was the Safety Department Head in three (3) Helicopter Squadrons, including a basic training squadron in Pensacola, Florida. He currently works for the Department of Homeland Security at the Transportation Security Administration Headquarters in the Information Technology Division. |
“Agent-Based Simulation of Crowd Dynamics and Mass Egress” by Doug Samuelson, Matthew Parker, Austin Zimmerman and Loren MillerDate: Thursday, February 8, 2007 For the Science and Technology Directorate, U S Department of Homeland Security, we constructed agent-based simulation models of mass egress from a stadium (PNC Park, in Pittsburgh) and a subway station following detonation of one or more improvised explosive devices. We offer hands-on demonstrations of these models and discuss their application and planned expansion to identify promising counter-IEDs technologies, to support preparedness and planning, and to help manage incidents. One surprising finding to date is that expediting egress does not necessarily reduce post-detonation casualties. We will also present results of additional work on real-time movie-like rendering of the models’ output in both pure Java and Python/C++ implementations. Douglas A. Samuelson is a senior analyst at HSI, President of WINFORMS, a well-known OR/MS practitioner, and the author of the long-running “ORacle” column in OR/MS Today, He has also been a Federal policy analyst, a software designer, an inventor, and a high-tech entrepreneur and executive. He has a B.A. in statistics from the U. of California - Berkeley and M.S. and D.Sc. degrees in operations research from George Washington U. Matthew Parker is an analyst for ANSER, leading and supporting computer projects for ANSER and HSI. He has a B.S. degree in mathematics from Purdue and a M.S. in computational science from George Mason U. Austin Zimmerman joined HSI as an associate analyst in June 2006, following her graduation from M.I.T. with dual B.S. degrees in physics and management science. Loren Miller joined HSI as an associate analyst in June 2006. He has a B.S. degree in economics from Cal Poly - Pomona and is currently in the M. A. program in security studies at Georgetown. |
