Analytics Helps Superpowers Manage Surplus Plutonium Threat

The Problem

At the end of the Cold War, vast quantities of highly radioactive and extremely toxic plutonium remained in Russian and U.S. storage facilities following the dismantlement of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons. In addition to the clear environmental hazard posed by these stockpiles, the possibility that plutonium could be stolen by terrorists represented a clear and present danger, according to a National Academy of Sciences panel. Although both the U.S. and Russia agreed on the need to dispose of the material, treaty requirements called for stockpiles to be eliminated in such a way that neither country would deplete its stockpile more rapidly than the other.

The Analytics Solution

Both U.S. and Russian governments applied multiattribute utility models to evaluate ways to dispose of their excess plutonium and select the optimum approach to satisfy potential critics, avoid emotional debates and bring about the best result. The process, led in the U.S. by a team from the Department of Energy and the Amarillo National Research Center, involved creating a traditional hierarchy of objectives. Three key objectives were nonproliferation, operational effectiveness and environment/safety/health. Subgoals included theft avoidance, preventing governmental diversion of plutonium for unauthorized purposes, and fostering international cooperation on nonproliferation. In the U.S., experts developed and quantified 37 criteria for assessing 13 plutonium disposal alternatives. Inputs used to rate the alternatives with respect to each criterion included both objective data and subjective judgments. Russian scientists applied the same basic analytics methodology but modified the ordering and weighting of some objectives to reflect different goals, including the possibility of recycling of plutonium for use in nuclear power plants.

The Value

The multiattribute utility model led the U.S. and Russia to choose the same plutonium disposal method, fabricating the deadly material into mixed oxide fuel for irradiation in existing commercial reactors. The process will lead to a more rapid and economical disposal of some 34 metric tons of plutonium on each side than would likely otherwise have occurred.