U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Advancing Public Health and Medical Preparedness with Operations Research and Analytics

The Problem

Since the Anthrax attacks in 2001, great effort nationwide has been devoted to population protection, in particular to rapid detection of outbreaks and to mass dispensing of prophylactic medical countermeasures that contain biological/ pandemic incidents. Despite this enormous effort, there is little actual experience or first-hand knowledge to call upon to plan for such rare but potentially catastrophic events. Their rarity, cost, complexity, and competing priorities are of great concern to policymakers who are aware of past failures to manage fast-changing catastrophes. Hence, it is important to have a powerful and realistic math modeling and real-time decision support system for training and planning.

The Analytics Solution

Working with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), analytics experts from Georgia Tech devised sophisticated modeling and computational strategies that address the fundamental challenges in mass dispensing: medical supply distribution, locations of dispensing facilities, optimal facility staffing and resource allocation, routing of the population, and dispensing modalities. The analytics technology was integrated into a powerful information decision support suite called RealOpt for tactical and strategic operational planning.

RealOpt combined O.R. and analytics modeling techniques – novel and large-scale computational engines, sophisticated graph-drawing tools, and three-dimensional geographical spatial information – with census data, demographic and socioeconomic data, and policy analysis to facilitate effective and dynamic operational planning and execution.  Plans included optimal facility layout, resource allocation, and cost-effective dispensing networks; strategic/tactical decision and policy making, including budget/resource estimation; continuous training, evaluation, and improvement; regional/national dispensing strategies to protect populations and respond to mass casualties; and establishment of a knowledge databank, including time-motion studies performed when there is mass dispensing.

The Value

RealOpt was able to accurately predict the staffing needs and the dispensing operations for many events, including anthrax preparedness and seasonal flu/H1N1 vaccinations. At a sample of events where it has been used, throughput efficiency was improved by 175% to 1000%, while staffing needs were reduced by 32% to 85%. In addition, regional planners can now realize optimal coverage by setting up a reasonable number of dispensing sites (a reduction of two- to fivefold in cities with population ranging from 50,000 to over 10 million). The rapid dispensing achieved by improved throughput translates into the potential to save hundreds of millions of dollars in cost and, most importantly, to save millions of lives.

RealOpt not only helps policy makers better prepare and more efficiently deploy available resources; the program also identifies gaps crucial to effective mitigation planning. It thereby addresses the Homeland Security Presidential Directive 21, which requires plans, procedures, and policies to recover from major events and render the appropriate public health and medical response to mitigate the effects of illness and injury, and to limit morbidity and mortality to the maximum extent possible.