Decision Science Digest: September 28, 2021

CATONSVILLE, MD, September 28, 2021 – 

EDITOR’S NOTE: The Decision Science Digest is a periodic communique highlighting recent peer-reviewed research published by INFORMS, the largest association for the decision and data sciences, across its 17 journals. This issue highlights four press releases based on the findings of new peer-reviewed articles.

• New Research Predicts Wildfire Threat and Helps Position Personnel and Resources Accordingly (INFORMS journal Applied Analytics)
• Physician Incentives Can Reduce the Overuse of Cardiac Stents by 26% (INFORMS journal Manufacturing & Service Operations Management)
• Researchers Develop Way to Improve Fleet-based Operations that Reduce Electric Mobility Service Costs by Nearly 40% (INFORMS journal Transportation Science)
• Learning from Failure: New Research Shows Too Much Optimism Hinders Entrepreneurs (INFORMS journal Organization Science)

New Research Predicts Wildfire Threat and Helps Position Personnel and Resources Accordingly

New research in INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics uses data and modeling to help firefighters predict wildfire threats. The models predict for each region of Los Angeles County the probability of a fire starting, the area burned by a fire and personnel preassigned to fight it, and which firefighter to send to each position. The Los Angeles County Fire Department uses weather forecasts paired with automated real-time weather observations, and field-tested moisture content of soil and vegetation, to decide whether and where to position firefighting equipment and personnel, as well as what equipment to use, for the following day. Anticipating a particularly hazardous “red flag” day, they activate off-duty personnel and reserve equipment and add these to the total augmented, prepositioned force. Analysis of years of detailed daily data can advise these costly decisions. Link to full article. 

Physician Incentives Can Reduce the Overuse of Cardiac Stents by 26%

New research in the INFORMS journal Manufacturing & Service Operations Management finds offering a bonus to physicians to do further testing leads to a 26% decline in cardiac stenting overuse. The paper, “Clinical Ambiguity and Conflicts of Interest in Interventional Cardiology Decision-Making,” finds that highly revenue-driven physicians may have a disincentive to perform advanced tests that provide more accurate diagnoses. Offering a bonus for performing fractional flow reserve (FFR) procedures equal to a third of its reimbursement rate will cause only a 5% increase in average physician payment while inducing a 26% decline in over-stenting. Link to full article.

Researchers Develop Way to Improve Fleet-based Operations that Reduce Electric Mobility Service Costs by Nearly 40% 

Fleet-based services, such as car sharing, have faced pressure to switch to electric charging technology. However, the limited availability of charging stations and long charging times would significantly increase operating costs. New research in the INFORMS journal Transportation Science brings to light the constraints of electric charging and repositioning idle vehicles. Using real test-case data from a carshare service in Brooklyn, N.Y., the researchers find this “awareness” can reduce costs by 38%. The paper, “A Node-charge Graph-based Online Carshare Rebalancing Policy with Capacitated Electric Charging,” details how to make electric vehicle fleets more economically sustainable, which will help address climate change. Link to full article.

Learning from Failure: New Research Shows Too Much Optimism Hinders Entrepreneurs

New research in the INFORMS journal Organization Science looks at how being overly optimistic can hinder the performance of entrepreneurs. The paper, “Failing to Learn from Failure: How Optimism Impedes Entrepreneurial Innovation,” finds that entrepreneurs with higher levels of regular optimism often disregard negative performance feedback when updating their thoughts about future performance. Recurring optimism also triggers a discrepancy between innovation input and output, which reduces the effectiveness of innovation. This work is critical to the design of effective policies and entrepreneurship training courses to increase alertness and encourage the critical assessment of work performance. Link to full article.

About INFORMS 

INFORMS is the largest association for the decision and data sciences, representing thousands of professionals and students from around the world who leverage and innovate the science and technology of decision making to save lives, save money, and solve problems.

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