Just Five Posts May Be Enough to Shape What People Believe Online, New Study Finds

New research reveals how quickly social media users begin forming lasting impressions, often before evaluating whether information is true

BALTIMORE, May 26, 2026 — If people form opinions online before they fully evaluate whether information is true, then the fight against misinformation may begin far earlier than most platforms are designed to address.

A new study published in Information Systems Research, a journal of INFORMS, suggests that social media users can begin developing stable opinions about unfamiliar topics after seeing only a handful of consistent posts. Researchers found that after roughly five exposures, users’ impressions often began stabilizing and shaping how they responded to future information.

The study, “Where the Ball Starts Rolling? An Empirical Investigation into Initial Opinion Formation on Social Media Platforms,” challenges a common assumption underlying many discussions about misinformation: that people first determine whether information is accurate and only then form opinions about it.

Instead, the findings suggest that in fast-moving social media environments, opinion formation often begins earlier, faster and more automatically than many users realize.

“People tend to assume opinions develop gradually through deliberate evaluation,” said Ashish Kumar Jha, co-author of the study and professor at Trinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin. “What we found is that under typical social media conditions, people can begin forming durable impressions very quickly, often before they have meaningfully assessed whether the information itself is accurate.”

Researchers conducted three controlled experiments using Instagram-style posts designed to simulate everyday scrolling behavior. Participants were exposed to unfamiliar information and asked to engage with content in conditions resembling real social media use.

What emerged was a striking pattern.

Once users crossed what researchers describe as the “Point of Critical Information,” or PCI, additional posts reinforcing an emerging opinion became easier to believe and more likely to be shared. At the same time, contradictory information became easier to dismiss.

Perhaps most notably, the effect persisted even when the underlying information was false.

Participants exposed to inaccurate information often reacted similarly to participants exposed to accurate information during the earliest stages of opinion formation. Rather than carefully evaluating factual accuracy, users relied more heavily on familiarity, repetition and narrative coherence when deciding what felt believable.

The findings arrive as social media platforms face growing scrutiny over misinformation, AI-generated content, algorithmic amplification and online influence. But unlike much existing misinformation research, this study focuses not on why false information spreads after beliefs are established, but on the moment those beliefs begin taking shape.

The study also found that identity cues significantly influenced credibility. Profiles signaling professional expertise, including accounts using titles such as “Dr.”, generated stronger engagement and greater trust even when credentials were unverified. In some cases, users viewed those accounts as more credible than high-follower influencer profiles posting identical information.

“Our findings suggest the earliest exposures users encounter online may carry far more weight than platforms currently recognize,” said Venu Puthineedi, co-author of the study and professor at NEOMA Business School. “By the time corrections, warnings or fact-checks appear, an initial evaluative framework may already be in place.”

For researchers in operations research, analytics and information systems, the findings underscore how platform design, information visibility and repeated exposure interact to shape large-scale social behavior. The study highlights how seemingly small design choices in digital systems can influence how opinions form, spread and solidify across entire online networks.

The researchers say the findings raise important questions about how platforms manage repetition, credibility and content visibility during high-stakes moments such as elections, public health emergencies and breaking news events.

The study suggests that early exposure itself may be one of the most powerful forces shaping what people come to believe online.

Read the full study here.

About INFORMS and Information Systems Research

INFORMS is the world’s largest association for professionals and students in operations research (O.R.), AI, analytics, data science, and related disciplines, serving as a global authority in advancing cutting-edge practices and fostering an interdisciplinary community of innovation. Information Systems Research, a premier INFORMS journal, publishes high-quality papers that advance knowledge on information systems theory, design, economics, and behavior. INFORMS empowers its community to enhance organizational performance and drive data-driven decision-making through its journals and resources. Learn more at www.informs.org or @informs.

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