News Room

If “the forecast is always wrong,” is improving forecast accuracy even the solution to our demand planning woes? In times that continue to defy our ability to predict them, the words of famous statistician George Box have never been more right: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” So what can we do to make models more useful? Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) can improve forecast accuracy, but a bigger problem is the failure to set accurate expectations around forecasting models, not the accuracy of the models themselves. For supply chains to get more use from their models, we need to “trust the box;” recognize that models are not the holy grail; and remember that a forecast is an input into making better decisions, not an end in and of itself.

It seems like we’re waiting now more than ever. The COVID-19 pandemic, which we were initially told would take just a few weeks to get under control, is now in its third year. Getting back to life as we knew it was more challenging than expected. Supply chain issues have extended lead times and severely disrupted operations across vital industries, including retail, travel, and healthcare.

In late July, South Korean electronics giant Samsung revealed plans to construct 11 new semiconductor manufacturing plants in Texas. This development is good news for America on a number of levels and represents a nearly $200 billion investment in U.S.-based chip manufacturing. 

The bill, which would provide $52billion (£43billion) in subsidies to US chip makers, passed a House and Senates vote last week. While it may take some time before the semiconductor shortage gets eased, the Chips and Science Act looks set to boost US competitiveness in the global chip market and could help the US fly ahead of China in this domain. Mr Biden is now expected to sign off the bill into law, to slash reliance on Chinese manufacturers which have been holding a tight grip on the market.

Images of queues, huge piles of luggage and even pilots loading their planes with cargo have plagued the media throughout the world. Airports have been in chaos for months as they have attempted to re-emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic, with Europe, the UK and the USA all having suffered the worst of the effects so far. Flight cancelations have played havoc with business travellers and holiday makers alike, and the problem only appears to be getting worse as a whole raft of flights have recently been cancelled in the UK. All this begs the question, Why are things so bad right now and how do we fix the situation? So this week on the inquiry we ask, Will air travel ever return to normal?